Oilers McDavid anytime goal at +145 but Edmonton's powerplay converting 32.4% over last 8 games

Those powerplay numbers are misleading - Nashville's road PK sample is only 9 games and includes two games against Detroit's anemic powerplay. McDavid's +145 is fair value when you factor in Saros likely starting (he's held McDavid to 2 goals in 6 career meetings). The line drop you're seeing is probably just sharp action on Edmonton team props, not McDavid specifically.

I was at Rogers Place last Tuesday when they played Colorado and McDavid looked absolutely dialed in on the powerplay. He's been setting up camp in that left circle and his one-timer release has been lightning quick. What caught my attention was how Edmonton's been getting those early powerplays - they've drawn a penalty in the first 8 minutes in 6 of their last 8 home games.

The Nashville angle is interesting because they've been taking more stick infractions lately (averaging 4.1 minor penalties over their last 6 road games vs 3.4 season average). If Edmonton gets an early man advantage, McDavid typically sees extended ice time on that first unit. I grabbed him at +155 this morning through MyStake before the line moved. Their powerplay setup has been so consistent lately that even if he doesn't score 5-on-5, those PP opportunities should give him solid chances.

The other factor is McDavid's shot volume - he's averaging 4.3 shots per game during this 8-game stretch compared to 3.1 season average. More shots typically correlates with better goal-scoring odds, especially when he's getting those prime powerplay looks.

Still learning the ropes with hockey props - when you guys talk about powerplay conversion rates, does that include short-handed goals against or just successful PP goals? And how much does goalie matchup typically affect these anytime goal props? Saros vs McDavid seems like it could be a key factor but I'm not sure how to weight that vs the powerplay stats.

McDavid props are sucker bets for recreational players. Books know everyone wants to bet the superstar, so they shade these lines accordingly. That +145 should probably be +165 based on true probability. Edmonton's powerplay hot streak is already baked into Nashville's game plan - they'll play more conservatively to avoid penalties. Plus McDavid's been getting shadowed by top defensive pairings more consistently lately.

If you're dead set on this play, at least shop around. BetOnline was still showing +155 as of an hour ago, and they typically have better limits on player props than most crypto books. But honestly, there's better value in the team total or period betting for this matchup.

Live betting angle here might be stronger than pregame. If Edmonton gets that early powerplay you mentioned, McDavid anytime goal will probably move to +120 range, but if they go down 1-0 early, it could drift back to +175. Nashville tends to take more penalties when they're protecting a lead, which could set up better in-play value on McDavid props in the second period.

Ran the numbers on McDavid's goal-scoring patterns over the last 20 games and there's a clear correlation with Edmonton's offensive zone faceoff percentage. When they win 55%+ of their offensive zone draws, McDavid scores in 68% of those games. When they're below 50%, he scores in only 31% of games.

Nashville's road faceoff percentage is 47.2%, and their center depth is questionable with Johansen still day-to-day. Edmonton should dominate faceoffs tonight, especially in the offensive zone where McDavid gets most of his high-danger chances. The powerplay efficiency you mentioned is definitely a factor, but the 5-on-5 faceoff advantage might be the more predictive metric here.

That 68% vs 31% split I mentioned gets even more interesting when you factor in Nashville's penalty kill personnel. Josi and McDonagh have been on the ice for 78% of their shorthanded situations over the last 10 games, and McDavid's shot attempts per 60 minutes drops from 14.2 against average PK units to 8.7 when facing those two specifically.

The faceoff angle matters more than people realize because McDavid's goal-scoring heat map shows 61% of his goals come from within 12 feet of the net, but that positioning relies heavily on Edmonton winning those offensive zone draws to set up their umbrella formation. If Nashville can disrupt that with Duchene taking key faceoffs, the +145 becomes a lot less attractive even with their powerplay converting at 32.4%.

That 14.2 shot attempts per 60 against McDonagh/Josi is the real tell here. Nashville's been rolling those two out there for nearly 4 minutes every penalty kill, and McDavid's production drops off a cliff when he's facing elite defensive pairs for extended minutes.

The +145 looks like a sucker line when you dig into the matchup specifics. McDavid's averaging 2.1 shots per game over his last 6 when facing teams that deploy their top PK unit for 75%+ of shorthanded time. That's not enough volume to justify the price, especially with Nashville likely getting multiple power play opportunities if Edmonton comes out aggressive.

That 4-minute penalty kill deployment for McDonagh/Josi changes the math completely on this prop. I've been tracking McDavid's shooting percentage against top-pair defenders and it drops to 8.2% compared to his season average of 12.8% against second units.

The real kicker is Nashville's been shortening their bench on the PK — they're only rotating 4 defensemen instead of 6, which means McDavid faces those elite pairs for 73% of his power play ice time instead of the usual 45-50% split. At +145, you're basically betting he scores against the toughest matchup Nashville can throw at him for nearly three-quarters of his opportunities.