Senators Tkachuk anytime goal at +175 but Ottawa 2-8 in last 10 games scoring 2.1 goals per contest

Stay away. When a team's that cold, even their best players struggle. Tkachuk's fighting the puck right now.

Had a similar situation last month with the Flames when they were in that 1-7 stretch. Huberdeau was getting great looks, powerplay time, everything you want to see for a goal prop. Kept backing his anytime goal at +165 thinking the drought had to end eventually.

Burned through three straight games before I learned my lesson. Team dynamics matter more than individual talent when the offense is this dysfunctional. The confidence isn't there, passes are off by inches, and goalies smell blood in the water.

I'd wait until Ottawa shows they can string together a couple 3+ goal games before touching any of their player props. Sometimes the math says one thing but the eye test says something completely different. Right now Tkachuk looks like he's gripping his stick too tight and forcing shots instead of letting the game come to him.

That +175 might look tempting but I've seen MyStake push similar lines to +195 when teams are this cold. Better to wait for a better spot than chase a mirage.

I actually like the contrarian angle here. When everyone's writing off a player, that's usually when the books haven't fully adjusted. Tkachuk's shot volume is still there - 24 shots in 6 games tells me he's getting quality looks.

St. Louis has been leaky at home, and sometimes all it takes is one fluky bounce to break a cold streak. The +175 price suggests the market is overreacting to recent results rather than looking at underlying metrics.

Been tracking similar situations all season and cold streaks create value more often than not. Just have to be selective about which players you back during rough patches.

Ran the numbers on this exact scenario - team scoring under 2.5 goals per game over 10+ game stretches. Individual goal props hit at 67% of their season average during these cold spells.

Tkachuk's season rate is 0.42 goals per game, so during this drought you'd expect roughly 0.28 goals per game. At +175 odds, you need a 36.4% hit rate to break even. Even with the reduced expectation, he's still not hitting that threshold.

The concerning part is Ottawa's powerplay has been atrocious - 8.3% over the last 10 games. That eliminates a lot of Tkachuk's higher-percentage scoring chances. I'd need to see +200 or better to consider this a value bet given the current team context.

The shot volume is encouraging but you have to factor in shot quality. Watched their last three games and Tkachuk's getting a lot of perimeter shots and deflection attempts that aren't really high-danger chances.

When teams are struggling offensively like Ottawa, they tend to force plays and take lower-percentage shots. The 24 shots look good on paper but I'd bet half of those were from bad angles or through heavy traffic.

I've been burned backing players during team-wide slumps before. The chemistry just isn't there right now. Better to wait for signs of life - maybe a 4-goal game or a couple powerplay goals in the same contest. That usually signals the drought is ending.

If you really want Senators exposure tonight, I'd look at Freshbet for their team total under instead. Much higher probability play given their recent form.

Still learning about goal props - when a team is cold like this, do the odds usually adjust quickly or do books keep posting similar numbers? Seems like +175 might be too high if everyone knows Ottawa can't score right now?

This is exactly the kind of trap bet recreational players fall into. "He's due" is not a betting strategy. Tkachuk might be a skilled player but he's part of a dysfunctional offensive system right now.

Look at the underlying numbers - Ottawa's expected goals per game during this stretch is 2.4, which means they're actually performing close to their underlying metrics. This isn't bad luck, it's bad hockey.

The powerplay struggles are the real killer here. Tkachuk gets 40% of his goals on the man advantage, and when your PP is running at 8.3%, those opportunities disappear. You're essentially betting on an even-strength goal from a player whose team can barely generate clean looks.

Save your money for a better spot. This line screams sucker bet to anyone who's actually watching these games instead of just looking at box scores.